According to the ARRL, 32,196 new licensees joined the amateur radio ranks last year. This is the fourth year in a row that the number of new licensees topped 30,000. The total number of licensees in the FCC database is now 748,136. The number of licensees in each class are:
- Technican: 378,000
- General: 174,206
- Amateur Extra: 145,034
- Advanced: 41,938
- Novice: 9,056
While 748,136 licensees sounds like a lot, it was also reported that the net gain was only 5,349. The report also notes that license upgrades were slightly down in 2017 to 9,576, “continuing a slight downward trend over the past 10 years.”
One odd conclusion that the ARRL draws from these figures is that they make the case for changes to the entry-level license. Their assumption is that the new privileges that they’d like to grant to Technicians will somehow give them the incentive to upgrade to General and Extra. As I’ve noted elsewhere, I’m not sure how giving more privileges to Techs gives them an incentive to upgrade. It seems more like a disincentive to me.
What the ARRL really needs to do is to figure out why those 27,000 licensees let their licenses expired. Some of those licensees have obviously passed, but it would be interesting to know how many just lost interest in ham radio and why. Without any good data, we’re all just blowing smoke.
RickB KA8BMA says
It would also be interesting to see new and renewal ARRL membership data plotted against license data. I beleive when the ARRL figures out how to grow it’s own ranks, it may figure how to grow the the ranks of amateurs in general.
Bob K0NR says
I agree, need data (and insights), then drive strategy. Basic market research and strategic planning.
Ed KC8SBV says
Dan, you make such good sense. I hope the ARRL leadership will listen…
Jeffrey Murray says
I’ve said it before, but not sure if I said it here.
Designate a new class of ham license focused on digital communication, terrestrial and space. New bands, modes, increased sat access, I’m too OM to know what RF privileges might be attractive to young smart cookies.
Most importantly, make the test for this amateur license at a near professional level, but such that a dedicated student could cobble his or her own cirrculum from online sources.
That’s right. Imagine a resume-worthy ham license.
How’s that for a New One?
Frank Howell says
Dan,
Great post! I’ve advised Rick Roderick, ARRL President, to establish a Research Advisory Committed to complement the DXAC and others. Thus is wholly consistent with the League’s Strategic Plan. There are ARR members who do such research as a profession and they should be recruited to lead such an effort. Plus, the League should have full transparency in any and all surveys and their results: release the raw data! To do otherwise is to not serve the membership.
Todd KD0TLS says
The really weird thing is that the *last* person a senior ham will listen to about the challenges a new ham faces is *an actual new ham*.
Instead, we listen to people that got their licence 30 or 40 years ago tell us how to integrate new operators. These people don’t actually listen to new hams: they twist what they hear into their own agenda, or make it clear in advance which responses they want to hear. Those new hams that fail to give the proper responses are dismissed as unsuitable and ignored.
And, so the group-think is perpetuated.
Previous “market research” by the ARRL has shown that only about half of new licensees get on the air, and that few younger people are interested in HF or DX. This goes directly against the delusional group-think (“hooked for life”, crazy about HF).
Why conduct more research that senior hams will just dismiss as being contrary to what they already ‘know’?
If this research tells you something that you don’t want to hear, will it be dismissed out of hand?
Rob W4ZNG says
Bingo. We’ve got to have the ARRL leadership looking way outside the been-a-ham-for-decades box.
Dan KB6NU says
While I take your point, Todd, I think you’re painting older hams with much too broad a brush. There are many older hams, myself included, who listen to new hams. Unfortunately, not enough of them are part of the ARRL leadership. Are you an ARRL member, Todd? Have you thought about running for an ARRL position?
John Fellows says
The ARRL wants to grow its membership. Period. It will take whatever positions necessary to bring in more $$$. Even if it is to the detriment of our hobby, the ARRL wants more $$$.
Walter Underwood says
I did different arithmetic. 32,000 new licensees from 7000 sessions is about 4.5 licenses per VE session. We need three VEs per session, so that is 1.5 licenses per volunteer commitment. The volunteer examiners are dedicated and do a great job, but I wonder if we could get a better payoff.