If you operate HF, it’s no secret that band conditions have not been great. The reason, of course, is that we’re at the bottom of the sunspot cycle. If we’re at the bottom of the sunspot cycle, then there’s no way to go but up, right? Maybe not. Recent data from the NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center seems to suggest that solar activity isn’t going to get better any time soon.
Here’s their solar flux projection as measured by the F10.7 index:
As you can see, the projection is for declining solar activity through 2022!
And, if that wasn’t depressing enough, I recently came across an article reporting on the research of Prof. Valentina Zharkova, who is predicting a grand minimum of 30 years!
The article states:
The gist of the matter is that all three main cycles are entering minimum phase, beginning with the end of this current solar cycle (Cycle 24). Cycle 25 will be even lower than 24, with 26 being very nearly flat-lined. Cycle 27 will begin to show a few signs of life, then there will be a gradual rise to full activity over several more solar cycles, even as the last three cycles have slowly decreased in levels. This means that the bottom of the extended, or ‘Grand’ minimum (to use Zharkova’s terminology), should run from ~2020 to ~2053.
The “grand minimum” not only affects HF propagation, but our climate as well. I’m not enough of an earth scientist to say much more about that, but you might want to watch the video of Zharkova’s presentation to the Global Warming Policy Foundation last October:
The good news is that less solar flux means satellites will have an easier time of it. I guess I really do need to get serious about satellite operation and sooner rather than later.
I blame Trump…and Obama.
I’d like to buy a sunspot, Alex…
Bit coin accepted too!
Perhaps we can seed the sun to produce sunspots…😁
From K9LA’s Propagation (http://k9la.us/index.html) website under the Timely Topics Tab, a chart of the downward trend for MIN Sunspots shows it hasn’t hit bottom yet! See Chart at … http://k9la.us/previous_six_solar_min_periods.png
I’ll spin the wheel, Pat. 🤡
Perhaps conditions will improve in 2735 days. 🤡
Merry Christmas!!!
It’s all voodoo science. (J/K). Will see what happens.
Well, there’s an HF satellite going up next year. CAS-5A will run 15M up and 10M down with a 30 kHz passband. And it will have another transponder running 15M up and 70 cm down with a whole 150 kHz passband.
https://www.amsat.org/linear-satellite-frequency-summary/
It will be the only “bird” that Techs can’t use, so that should give it a certain elitist appeal.
I think i have a sunspot on my forehead!
i believe we been down this path many times and its always been considered the worst each time. We will have to wait and see who knows some scientists have been wrong before, and many hams ran out and sold all there gear fearing the worst. I recall seeing videos where one scientists predicted the gas from a comet would cause wide spread death. Some believe it and took the road to heaven.
Since there is a tariff on solar energy, we will just get less and have pay more, for the foreseeable future.
Ha.
If 25 turns out to be on par with 24 I’ll be happy, been licensed some 33 years and Cycle 24 was a blast on 10 metres. It’s just that waiting in-between peaks…… Look forward to working you all on 10 next time, 73 de G0UWK.